Pregnancy Takes Nine Months, Gestation Of Leading-Edge Technology Takes Time Too

By: Mike Teng
Submitted: 2007-01-17 15:36:26
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Many healthy companies fall into the trap of their success. They tend to be more ‘technology’ driven mode rather than being ‘market’ driven. Many companies developed the product first then start out looking for the market. Successful companies look at the market first then start developing the products.

Exxon Chemicals was the first largest faxed machine supplier in the world. But Exxon Chemicals was ahead of its time and after making horrendous financial losses, decided to give up. Instead the late entrants, Japanese companies such as Canon, made a success of the fax technology. In the 1980s, many videotext services such as the Singapore Telecoms Teletext made losses. The technology of videotext appeared very promising, with each household been able to access electronic data and information from the television screens. The only problem was that the market application and services were not widespread enough to create a critical mass. It took time for the wide acceptance of videotext services to kick in. The Internet technology took over the top spot of online services instead although the Internet is a much less sophisticated technology and an earlier head-start than videotext. Also, notwithstanding the more powerful colour picture quality and technology of the videotext as compared to the Internet, the Internet has the advantage of wider market acceptance. As a result, videotext applications were dwarfed by the Internet ones.

The following shows that the other gestation period between a technological invention and commercial production is shortening.

Invention, Invention date, Production date, Waiting time

Fluorescent lighting 1851,1934, 82 years

Radar 1887,1933, 46 years

Ballpoint pen 1888,1938, 50 years

Zipper 1891,1923, 32 years

Diesel locomotive 1895,1934, 39 years

Power steering 1900,1930, 30 years

Helicopter 1904,1936, 32 years

Television 1907,1936, 29 years

It takes a long time for the technology to pick up. However, the lapse of timing between invention and production is speeding up and narrowing.

In technology, there is a trigger point when the price gets low enough, the application gets widened and people think that they want to have it. The technology can stay latent for a long time before hitting the trigger point as the market is not quite ready to embrace the applications of the technology. The key is to prepare for the trigger point and ride with the wave and revolution when it arrives.

When the technology is triggered off and embraced it will permanently change the way we do business. Just as fax technology phases out the telex, e:mail technology may one day phase out faxes. CD is phasing out videotape technology and one day CD itself may be phased out by DVD.

A few years ago, people would buy computers and not ask for a DVD drive, now they expect to have it. Not so long ago, wireless phones were not common, today even students must have it as part of their school kits. In the 1980s, Internet was not popular.

Today any business which is not registered on the website is not in business. However, it was foolhardy for many dot.com companies that thought that the New Economy revolution would radically change the consumers’ habits within months of the introduction of a new product or service. An example is the telecommunications market, where start-up after start-up promised new technology to bring data, voice and video together. They failed to deliver not because the technology was not ready, but rather the market was not yet ripe. Their debt loads finally killed many of these start-ups.

To gain competitive edge, you want to position your company in the leading edge. You want to leverage on technology advancements and be prepared for the flashpoint. Pioneers do face arrows and the leading edge all too often translates into the bleeding edge. If you are a small company, you do not have the resources to develop leading-edge technology. You position your organisation ready for the trigger point by finding tools to apply with existing technology.

This is why Rosabeth Moss Kanter said: “The problem before us is not to invent more tools but to use the ones we already have.”

Article source: Expert Articles