Stock Market Prediction

By: Sandro Azzopardi
Submitted: 2007-01-17 16:16:37
Print this article | Tell a friend | For publisher | Social Bookmarking
Rating:
 

Predicting the stock market has always been a fascinating science. It can be done in different shapes and forms. Here are a few:

1. Stock Market Prediction based on Gurus

We see a lot of them on TV. Many seasoned traders and brokers appear on financial TV channels, and by using either fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or both, predict the move of a certain stock, whether for the next week, month or even for a longer term period. Even though these predictions can be used for long time investors, short term traders normally use personalized tools to predict the next movement in a particular security.

2. Stock Market Prediction based on Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysts scrutinise the company pertaining to the stock which they are going to trade. They get all the possible data figures for that company, they enquire on the directors and main shareholders, learn on the products or services they produce, keep a constant eye on news, not only financial, but information pertaining to their line of business, and more. Based on this information, analysts predict the stock movement for the next few days, weeks or months.

3. Stock Market Prediction based on Technical Analysis

Technical analysts look at charts, they draw trends on the chart by joining low points with high points, they insert formulas which produce various calculations based on past highs, lows and volumes. Lines can be drawn determining support and resistance levels. These are the basis of predicting a stock price based on technical analysis. Many times information like company dividends, news and directors are of no value to technical traders.

4. Stock Market Prediction based on Software Training

Predicting the stock market with state-of-the-art software is a possibility today with all the advances in technology. Some stock market software packages have the possibility to import data for the past weeks, months or years of a security, and based on specific formulas and equations, using complex algorithms, can train themselves on this data and on the movement of the stock price. The result of this is the prediction of the future price of the stock. Normally these packages work on technical information, but some are now also introducing fundamental analysis as part of this training and prediction process.

5. Stock Market Prediction based on Momentum

Many day traders use what is called ‘Level 2’ data to base their trades. While the stock market is open, the trader can see a list of buying orders on one side and a list of selling orders on the other side. Price and volume are shown, together with other information, from which seasoned traders gauge the momentum of the stock and take short term trades, normally lasting only a few seconds or minutes, to profit from a sudden change of price.

Successfully predicting the stock market, or even, one security, is a must for every trader. Success or failure depends on this. One needs to gain as much knowledge as possible on all possibilities available, and when one is comfortable with a pre-tested and working system, that system can be used as the basis on which to invest or trade in the stock market.

Sandro Azzopardi is a professional author who writes several articles on various subjects on his web site and local newspapers and magazines. You can visit information about this article and others on: http://www.theinfopit.com/business/stockmarket/stockmarketprediction.php

Article source: Expert Articles

Most Recent Articles in Stocks Mutual Funds category

  • Where to Put a Stop Loss - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    Whether you use volatility-based, Fibonacci. Gann, percentage declines, pivot points, or any other method for determining where to put a stop loss, your stop loss will sometimes be triggered just before the stock resumes its climb. Learn to live with it. The alternative can be disastrous.
  • Select Stocks by Combining Technical and Fundamental Screens - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    A stock selection strategy designed to find stocks that are likely to appreciate significantly within a relatively short time should include both fundamental and technical screening systems. The technical is useful for identifying setups and in the timing of purchases and sales. Good fundamentals are the fuel that enable sustained flight.
  • Be Both a Short-Term Trader and a Long-Term Investor - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    Short-term traders often assume less risk than long-term investors. There is a right time and a wrong time to own the stock of every great company. The smartest investors base their decisions on the balance between risk and reward, not on a pre-determined holding period.
  • Short-Term Stock Trends and Risk Control - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    Risk control is more important than being a long-term investor. Stock trends are becoming shorter. Risk is increasing. Riding out all dips in stock price can lead to disaster.
  • The Advantage of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    In general, ETFs are less volatile than individual stocks, have many of the benefits of sector and index mutual funds, and a relatively low expense ratio. Fraud, as has occurred with standard mutual funds, is virtually impossible. They are worth considering as alternatives to individual stocks and standard mutual funds.
  • Stock Market Investing: Long-Term or Short-Term? - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    To buy and hold stocks for the long-term has been the preferred approach to stock market investing for many decades. However, in a volatile stock market this approach can be very expensive in terms of risk vs. return on investment. The long-term holder may not be taking the wisest course after all.
  • The Fundamental vs. the Technical in Stock Buy and Sell Decisions - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    In a volatile market, technical signals tend to precede announcements of change in the fundamentals of a company. Understand how this works and how to use both the technical and the fundamental in your buy and sell decisions.
  • What does "Timing the Market" or "Market Timing" Really Mean? - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    As practiced by professionals, "market timing" is about buying and selling in accordance with a predetermined set of conditions and rules. It is about following the buy signals and the sell signals. It is not about investing according to how one "feels" about the market, and it is not about the illegal activities of some mutual fund managers that the media has referred to as "market timing."
  • The Best Stop Loss for Long-Term Investors - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    Wherever the stop loss is placed, there is the chance that the stock will reverse course after the stop loss is triggered. We wondered if there was an optimum stop loss placement that would minimize both the loss allowed by the stop loss and the probability of a reversal after the sale.
  • Diversification and Stop Loss Placement - By: Dr. Winton Felt
    Some of the most respected names in the investment world (Granville, Weinstein, Dines, Magee, Zweig, Sperandeo, Schwager, O'Neil, Murphy, and others all agree on the necessity of using stop losses. Though they do not seem to agree on how much of a stock decline to allow selling, they are much closer in their thinking than is apparent on the surface.