#88 UAB Blazers Preview

By: Matt Fargo
Submitted: 2007-01-17 16:25:43
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Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#88 – UAB Blazers 5-6 SU; 5-5 ATS

Fargo’s Take 2005 was supposed to be a big year in Birmingham but it ended up being a bust. After going to the first bowl game in the history of the program in 2004, the Blazers were expected to repeat that with the possibility of a C-USA crown on top of it. Instead, UAB stumbled to a 5-6 record because it couldn’t win the close games. All six losses were by single digits and consecutive one-point defeats in October triggered the downward spiral. All-time passing leader Darrell Hackney is gone so the offense is going to take a step backwards, at least from a passing standpoint. The offense will be more run oriented, which is where the strength lies, and it will be up to the defense to keep games within reach. The defense allowed the least amount of yards since 2001 and with one of the best front sevens in the conference, that goal is attainable. The schedule is demanding but it is not impossible and if a quarterback can emerge, good things can happen. That is a big if however.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 Replacing the arm and the leadership of Hackney will be impossible and the fact that no quarterback came out of spring with the job locked down does not instill a lot of confidence. The good news is that whoever does come out as the starter isn’t going to be forced to replicate what Hackney accomplished. All eyes will be on the running game where four senior backs lead the way along with the return of four offensive linemen. The Blazers finished 64th in rushing offense last season and that will certainly improve in 2006. Three players are competing for the signal caller spot and while they won’t be asked to win games, they will still be asked to make plays, enough to keep the offense moving and to limit the time the defense has to spend on the field.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The stop unit was good but not great last season and not making the timely plays is what led to many close defeats. The defense is littered with seniors this season, eight starters to be exact, so this should be a much improved unit. The strength is at linebacker where three senior starters are back, led by returning tackler Orlandus King. Defensive end Larry McSwain is the main guy on the line but after finishing with 13 sacks in 2004, he dropped to just four last season. Expect those totals to increase significantly this year. The secondary does not return any starters but there is enough experience, six juniors and seniors on the two-deep, to improve on its 70th ranking against the pass. The Blazers allowed opponents to convert 45 percent on third down, a number that needs to improve significantly.

Schedule The Blazers come right out of the gate with a game at Oklahoma and following a game at home against East Carolina, they head back on the road to face Georgia. Three straight home games follow that include contests against Mississippi and Memphis. Catching Memphis and then UTEP at home are big breaks but the end of the season is a tough stretch. Three of the Blazers final four games are on the road including the final two games at Southern Mississippi and Central Florida, the two frontrunners in the East Division. Obviously the toughest part of the conference schedule is at the end of the season but by that point, the offense should be much better off. An upset in the final two weeks is not out of the question.

You can bet on… UAB will be all about ball control this year and as long as the defense plays to its potential, things should work out. The Blazers were 21st in the country in total offense in 2005 but only 52nd in scoring offense so those numbers need to become more in line. UAB went 5-5 against the number last season but went just 2-5 ATS down the stretch. The two wins were as dogs, which is nothing new since it has been one the best underdog teams over the last few years. The Blazers are 29-11 ATS when getting points over the last seven years and we should see them in the dog role on plenty of occasions this year, giving us some good opportunities once again. A winning record and a bowl game are possibilities but things need to fall into place right away, something that might be too much to ask for.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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