A Case for Value in Fantasy Football Drafts

By: Phil Ayres
Submitted: 2007-01-17 16:25:43
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We have all been there. You are in the draft room. For some of you, that draft room is a Vegas ballroom. For others, it is the study lounge of your school’s library. The first round goes by. You are the fifth pick. The guy before you took Clinton Portis. Hmmm. This is easy you think. I’ll just snag Willis McGahee. He is the next best guy on the board.

The first round goes on. On comes the second. It is your pick. Peyton (of course) is gone. Tiki is gone. Randy is gone. Even (God help me) T.O. is gone. What do you do? You scramble looking for the best running back on the board. And, there just isn’t much left. What do you do?

In the dawn of fantasy fantasy football, the conventional wisdom would have indicated that you should get the best QB that you could get in the first round. And, then, you move on to the running backs. But, now things have changed.

The average fantasy football player is smarter. Or, are they, really? I remember my first fantasy football draft. It was 1999. I never got into the whole rotisserie thing. The idea of sitting down on a Monday evening and computing stats for entire league sounded somewhat undesirable. But, then, came the Internet that Al Gore gave to us.

When the Internet got here, we all realized that we could have someone else compute stats, while we played fantasy. Ergo, my addiction and the addiction of countless others began.

But, back to that first draft …Nobody – I mean NOBODY – knew what they were doing. Everybody thought that they had to have a QB in the 1st round. Now, we are full circle. Contrast that with today’s drafts. Everyone thinks that they have to have a RB in the first round (with the obvious exception of the guy who drafts Peyton in the first round).

So, what do you do when you feel like all the good RBs are going to be taken? The answer … DON’T DO IT!!! Most people would suggest that you should take a RB in the first two rounds. However, I don’t favor this mechanical approach to drafting. It will only get you into trouble. If you show up at Baskin-Robbins and the guy behind the counter says we are running out of ice cream, would you just take the first two flavors the guy behind the counter says are still available. Doubtful. You still want to get the most favorable ice cream that you can possibly get.

Therefore, that is why we need to consider the relative value of players when we are drafting. For example, let’s look at this first example of RBs. Let’s go back to the original example. I agree that RBs are critical and that they are hard to come by. But, let’s say that you get to the second round. Deuce, gone. Ahman Green, gone. Even, Lamont Jordan is gone. Why do you feel like you should take a RB?

When you are drafting, you should be thinking about one thing … relative value to other players in their respective positions. For example, let’s look at TEs. You have a few premier players in the NFL at TE. Gonzalez, Gates, Witten, Shockey. Once you get beyond the top few, the bottom really starts to fall out. Pretty soon, you are stuck with Chris Cooley. So, why not take that TE in the 2nd round, rather than an average RB? Or, a premier WR that would otherwise get overlooked until the 3rd.

I am not saying that you should not take RBs in the 2nd round. That would be foolhardy advice. I am simply saying that you should be analyzing each position and assigning a point value for each player in each position, based upon how many fantasy points that one player will generate, in a season.

Once you have done so, you compare players. Do I select Chris Brown in the 2nd? If I do not, likely, I will be able to take Kevan Barlow in the third? Is there really a huge difference in the potential fantasy point impact of these two players? Not really.

On the other hand, not many people take TEs in the 2nd round or even a premier WR? Is there a huge difference between a Marvin Harrison or a Javon Walker who you may be able to acquire in the 2nd and a Lee Evans, who may become available in the 3rd? You bectcha’.

I am simply trying to get you to think. When you are drafting, you need to be thinking about the potential fantasy points that each player will provide for you and making your picks accordingly? Don’t get caught up in a mechanical method of predictions. Don’t think that just because Joe Bob drafts RBs in the first two rounds every season that you should do the same. Keep your eyes on the prize. Fantasy wins are about points. Compare players in their respective positions on the basis of how many points they will provide you with, draft accordingly, and Joe Bob will be eating your dust at the end of the season.

This article was provided by the staff of MyFantasyBall.com, the Internet's #1 provider of customized, fantasy football analysis, cheat sheets, and draft rankings. Go to www.myfantasyball.com and get ready for your fantasy draft today.

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